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Oscar nominations 2024: Check out our final predictions

When the 2024 Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday, January 23 at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Los Angeles, many of the biggest cinematic stories of 2023 will get their latest and most exciting twist. To be able to Barbie and Oppenheimer will they match their dominance at the box office with equally big Oscar nominations? To be able to Cord Jefferson and Celine’s song pull off the exceedingly rare feat of earning Best Picture nominations for their first-ever features? And how will the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fare?

One thing’s for sure: Oscar records will be broken, surprises will be in store, and we’ll be here to watch it all. Read the full list of our Oscar predictions below.

BEST PICTURE

American fiction

Anatomy of a fall

Barbie

Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Past lives

Poor people

Oppenheimer

Zone of interest

Ordinarily, we’d be wary of predicting that the Oscars would pick the same 10 films as the Producers Guild of America, an organization that often gives room for rogue blockbusters (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Crazy Rich Asians, Deadpool), which does not end up on the Academy’s final list. But this year, the producers went in a different direction, including an international offering Anatomy of a fall and zone of interest, suggesting that these films are in an even stronger position than we thought to displace more populist Hollywood productions such as Color Purple and Air.

But that’s what happens at the bottom of the lineup; let’s start at the top. Oppenheimer is holding on to its presumed lead following its significant wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and while it still has a ways to go to win, a nomination is assured. The same goes for its summer box office twin, Barbie, and Killers of the Flower Moon, both had strong showings with every predecessor imaginable. If we’re making the top five in this category, we’ll round it up Poor people– winner of the Comedy Globe nad Barbie, and PGA and Directors Guild nominations – a american fiction, which got a big boost with a SAG ensemble nomination.

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From there we have some strong contenders with a few caveats that shouldn’t keep them out of this top 10. Holdovers was warmly received throughout the season and star Da’Vine Joy Randolph wins supporting actress category; its small but mighty ensemble missed out on a top SAG nomination, but we can’t imagine the film missing out here. Maestro she was driven more by the buzz for her lead performances than by the director Bradley Cooper‘s achievements, but a film this beautifully shot and moving should also win Best Picture. AND Past lives has been steady as an indie heartthrob of the season could, and a Producers Guild nomination proves it has the attention of a wide swath of the industry.

Which brings us back to where we started. Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a fall has been a strong contender since its premiere at Cannes, so it’s very likely that it will follow the other Palme winners Triangle of sadness and Parasite to this report. That leaves just one slot – just one! – which has been available for weeks. It’s really about looking at industry support for the PGA Zone of interest versus supporting the SAG industry Violet, which earned a nomination for Best Ensemble. In this case, we’re just going with our gut — and what the Oscar voters in Los Angeles keep stressing — and predict that Zone completes 10. —Katey Rich

BEST DIRECTOR

Jonathan Glazer, Zone of interest

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor people

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a fall

This year is a very competitive year at the Oscars, with big films coming from big-name directors. Starring: Christopher Nolan, Martin Scorsese, Greta Gerwig, Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne—these five have been nominated in this category before, make up this year’s DGA-recognized group, and are arguably the strongest Best Picture contenders right now. So it’s pretty easy to predict, right? Not so fast. Few branches of the Academy are as predictably unpredictable as the directors, and indeed it seems unlikely that this internationally skewed group would recognize five American films, however popular they are in the overall nominations.

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