Top pollster says ‘struggling’ Biden, 81, must consider ‘stepping down’ as swing state voters reveal who they want to replace him

A top pollster has advised President Joe Biden to consider withdrawing as the Democratic presidential nominee if he continues to do badly in the polls through August.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shared his analysis of the election during a podcast interview with Maria Konnikova on the Risky Business podcast.

He said Biden, 81, was trailing in most polls, which he called «a really, really bad sign for his campaign.»

«If Biden is still struggling in August, he needs to consider stepping aside,» Silver wrote on X, sharing a video of his analysis.

A top pollster has advised President Joe Biden to consider withdrawing as the Democratic presidential nominee if he continues to do badly in the polls through August.

Silver acknowledged that it would be very difficult for Democrats politically if Biden dropped out, but that it was something the party should consider.

«It’s not a great situation for Ds by any means, but you have to look closely at the issue,» he said. «Of course, these are important elections. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about it.’

Biden’s behavior during Thursday’s press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto raised questions about his mental stability as he repeatedly asked for stage directions and appeared surprised when reporters began shouting questions at him.

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Silver’s analysis ties in with a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll asking swing state voters who they would prefer to replace Biden if he is unable to continue as the Democratic presidential nominee.

Choices in the poll included Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.

Forty-five percent of voters polled chose Harris, with Whitmer and Buttigieg tied at 36 percent, Newsom with 32 percent, Moore with 23 percent and Pritzker with 21 percent.

In 2024, the vice president stepped up her campaign trips, trying to gain support, especially in swing states.

In 2024, Harris visited North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin four times each, Georgia three times and Arizona and Michigan twice.

The poll shows that swing state voters are increasingly familiar with Harris and have already made up their minds about her.

While 45 percent supported Harris as a replacement for Biden, 46 percent of voters in the poll opposed Harris as a replacement, including 38 percent who strongly opposed her as the choice.

Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom

Voters in swing states favored Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden over California Gov. Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg
Gretchen Whitmer

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are tied at 36 percent

Only 9 percent of voters said they did not know or had no opinion about Harris.

About 30 percent of voters in the poll said they don’t know or have no opinion of Democrats like Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg.

More than 50 percent of voters had no opinion of lesser-known political figures like Pritzker and Moore.

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Despite her struggles with voters, Harris expressed her willingness to fight in a recent interview with Mav Carter, manager and business partner of baseball star LeBron James.

«Elections and campaigning, it’s like a fight, you know, people say oh, it’s like a marathon, it’s like a marathon when people are throwing tomatoes at you every step of the way,» Harris said.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states online from May 7-13.

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